Moore’s law
A bold prediction that became the tech industry’s North star
Moore's law refers to the guiding principle in the world of electronics and computer engineering that forecasts the pace of technology development. Coined by the late Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, this "law" has driven the exponential growth of technology for over half a century.
Imec CEO Luc Van den hove & Dr. Gordon Moore.
What is Moore's law?
Back in 1965, Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors on a microchip would double approximately every two years. Transistors are tiny electronic switches that control the flow of electricity on chips that are found in electronic devices like computers and phones. Doubling the number of transistors on a microchip means computers would get twice as powerful and also a lot less expensive.
While Moore initially said this doubling of transistors per chip would happen every year, Moore later changed his prediction to a doubling every two years. His prediction turned out to be pretty accurate, and has been guiding technology development in the industry ever since.
The inspiration for Moore’s law
Gordon Moore first wrote about this idea in an article published on April 19th, 1965, in Electronics Magazine. He noticed that since the first development of an integrated chip circuit in 1958, the number of components on these chips had doubled every year. Moore predicted that this trend would continue for at least another ten years.
He also predicted that this huge increase in computer power would enable fantastic new applications: computers in every home, self-driving cars, and the development of handheld communication devices.
Explore the many applications of microchips
In 1975, Moore adjusted his prediction from a yearly doubling of transistors to a doubling approximately every two years. This was a better reflection of the actual pace of technology development. Moore’s law became a self-fulfilling prophecy: a vision and roadmap challenging researchers and engineers to continue microchip innovation.
The impact of Moore's law
Moore’s law is not a natural law like those we know from physics. Nevertheless, its prediction on the speed of technology development has had a huge impact on all of our lives. Our computers, phones, and other gadgets have become more powerful, compact, and affordable— at an extraordinary pace.
This in turn has made work and communication faster and easier. It helped to spread information quickly. And perhaps most importantly, made technology accessible to more people around the world. From video games to GPS technology, scientific research and healthcare, the benefits are everywhere.
The future of Moore's law
Even though Moore's law has proved accurate for over 50 years, keeping up with it has become more and more challenging. Making new, smaller chips is becoming very expensive and complicated. Recently we’re seeing progress slow down at this front.
Whether or not we’ll be able to keep up, Moore's law has already demonstrated how much can be achieved with hard work and innovation. It started as a smart observation and turned into a roadmap for the tech industry. The exact prediction might change, but the drive to improve technology will keep pushing us forward, leading to a new and exciting future.
This is how imec envisions the evolution of chip technology to keep up with Moore’s law:
More about imec’s chip scaling roadmap
The exact prediction might change, but the drive to improve technology will keep pushing us forward, leading to a new and exciting future.